The National Championship game is scheduled for April 5, 2021. March Madness National Championship Odds March Madness odds via BetMGM Sportsbook, last updated Feb. NCAA football championship odds will usually look like this: Alabama Crimson Tide +300 This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to win $300 if the Crimson Tide win the national title. 2021 NCAA Tournament title odds: Villanova the favorite; Gonzaga, Texas among best bets A look at some fun favorites to ride, sleepers to watch and some long shots to sprinkle some dough on. SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo reviews the latest NCAA basketball conference betting odds as well as the updated futures market for the National Championship. Alabama is the Vegas favorite to repeat as national champion, as the Crimson Tide have 2.5-to-1 odds to win it all. Clemson checks in next with 4-to-1 odds.
Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. So, 85% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
The final column is tabled 'True Odds'. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
Odds to Advance to Each Round of the Tourney by Bracket Seed
| Seed | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Champ Game | Win Champ | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.3% | 85.7% | 69.3% | 40.7% | 24.3% | 15.7% | 62.9% |
| 2 | 94.3% | 63.6% | 45.7% | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 14.3% |
| 3 | 85.0% | 52.9% | 25.7% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 11.4% |
| 4 | 79.3% | 47.1% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 5 | 64.3% | 33.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 62.9% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 7 | 60.7% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 8 | 48.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 9 | 51.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 39.3% | 16.4% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | 37.1% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | 35.7% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 20.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | 15.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tournament Win/Loss Statistics by Seeding
While those numbers give us a broad look at the probabilities for teams at different positions in the tournament, it may also help to know the exact results for each seed. You'll find the records and win percentages in every bracket since 1985 in the tables below. These differ from the table above in that they show how each team does in each round once they have reached it.
First Round
The opening slate is unsurprisingly the most predictable. At seeds 1-4 we can advance teams in our bracket without much worry of an upset. The only real surprise is that 12 seeds perform as well against 5 seeds as 11s do against 6 seeds. 2018 marked the first time in history a #1 upset a #16, kudos to you if you picked UMBC over Virginia! The odds are this won't happen again for a long time. You are better off assuming all #1 seeds are going to advance past this round.
Ncaa Basketball Champion Odds
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 1 | 99% |
| 2 | 132 | 8 | 94% |
| 3 | 119 | 21 | 85% |
| 4 | 111 | 29 | 79% |
| 5 | 90 | 50 | 64% |
| 6 | 88 | 52 | 63% |
| 7 | 85 | 55 | 61% |
| 8 | 68 | 72 | 49% |
| 9 | 72 | 68 | 51% |
| 10 | 55 | 85 | 39% |
| 11 | 52 | 88 | 37% |
| 12 | 50 | 90 | 36% |
| 13 | 29 | 111 | 21% |
| 14 | 21 | 119 | 15% |
| 15 | 8 | 132 | 6% |
| 16 | 1 | 139 | 1% |
Second Round
The second round is where you start to find a lot of variation versus what you would expect based strictly on seeding. Number nine seeds have been terrible in their second game, while ten seeds win their second round games over 40% of the time. Top ranked teams at this point in the tournament are still a safe bet with a #1 being upset only once every 3-4 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 120 | 19 | 86% |
| 2 | 89 | 43 | 67% |
| 3 | 74 | 45 | 62% |
| 4 | 66 | 45 | 59% |
| 5 | 47 | 43 | 52% |
| 6 | 42 | 46 | 48% |
| 7 | 27 | 58 | 32% |
| 8 | 13 | 55 | 19% |
| 9 | 7 | 65 | 10% |
| 10 | 23 | 32 | 42% |
| 11 | 22 | 30 | 42% |
| 12 | 21 | 29 | 42% |
| 13 | 6 | 23 | 21% |
| 14 | 2 | 19 | 10% |
| 15 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 16 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Sweet 16
The Sweet 16 is where the better ranked teams really start to settle in. If you are a 1-3 seed that has made it this far, chances are you are going to advance. One interesting note here is that 8 seeds that have made it this far are more likely to advance than 3-7 seed. The trick, of course, is picking which 8 seed is going to advance. A #8 has been in this situation in just 37% of the brackets in the last 35 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97 | 23 | 81% |
| 2 | 64 | 25 | 72% |
| 3 | 36 | 38 | 49% |
| 4 | 21 | 45 | 32% |
| 5 | 9 | 38 | 19% |
| 6 | 14 | 28 | 33% |
| 7 | 10 | 17 | 37% |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 62% |
| 9 | 4 | 3 | 57% |
| 10 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| 11 | 8 | 14 | 36% |
| 12 | 1 | 20 | 5% |
| 13 | 0 | 6 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Elite 8
This round appears to be the biggest equalizer. Teams who reach this point in the tournament are obviously talented and have either had an easy bracket thus far or have overcome some obstacles. This makes the Elite 8 ripe for upsets.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57 | 40 | 59% |
| 2 | 29 | 35 | 45% |
| 3 | 17 | 19 | 47% |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 62% |
| 5 | 7 | 2 | 78% |
| 6 | 3 | 11 | 21% |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 30% |
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 63% |
| 9 | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| 10 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 50% |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Final Four
Similar to the Elite 8, teams who make it this far, regardless of seed, are going to be a tough out. All this means is that if you select a non-number-one to make the Final Four, you shouldn't feel obligated to pick them to lose at this point.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 23 | 60% |
| 2 | 13 | 16 | 45% |
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 65% |
| 4 | 3 | 10 | 23% |
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 43% |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| 7 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Ncaa Championship Odds 2020 Football
Championship Game
No surprise here that #1s win the Championship more often than any other, especially considering seven championship games have featured two number one teams. No team seeded higher than 8th has reached the title game as of yet, but at some point one would have to assume a 9 or 10 can break through.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 12 | 65% |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
The 2020 college football season may have just ended, but it's never too early to look ahead to 2021.
The National Championship game is scheduled for April 5, 2021. March Madness National Championship Odds March Madness odds via BetMGM Sportsbook, last updated Feb. NCAA football championship odds will usually look like this: Alabama Crimson Tide +300 This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to win $300 if the Crimson Tide win the national title. 2021 NCAA Tournament title odds: Villanova the favorite; Gonzaga, Texas among best bets A look at some fun favorites to ride, sleepers to watch and some long shots to sprinkle some dough on. SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo reviews the latest NCAA basketball conference betting odds as well as the updated futures market for the National Championship. Alabama is the Vegas favorite to repeat as national champion, as the Crimson Tide have 2.5-to-1 odds to win it all. Clemson checks in next with 4-to-1 odds.
Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. So, 85% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
The final column is tabled 'True Odds'. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
Odds to Advance to Each Round of the Tourney by Bracket Seed
| Seed | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Champ Game | Win Champ | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.3% | 85.7% | 69.3% | 40.7% | 24.3% | 15.7% | 62.9% |
| 2 | 94.3% | 63.6% | 45.7% | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 14.3% |
| 3 | 85.0% | 52.9% | 25.7% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 11.4% |
| 4 | 79.3% | 47.1% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 5 | 64.3% | 33.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 62.9% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 7 | 60.7% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 8 | 48.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 9 | 51.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 39.3% | 16.4% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | 37.1% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | 35.7% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 20.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | 15.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tournament Win/Loss Statistics by Seeding
While those numbers give us a broad look at the probabilities for teams at different positions in the tournament, it may also help to know the exact results for each seed. You'll find the records and win percentages in every bracket since 1985 in the tables below. These differ from the table above in that they show how each team does in each round once they have reached it.
First Round
The opening slate is unsurprisingly the most predictable. At seeds 1-4 we can advance teams in our bracket without much worry of an upset. The only real surprise is that 12 seeds perform as well against 5 seeds as 11s do against 6 seeds. 2018 marked the first time in history a #1 upset a #16, kudos to you if you picked UMBC over Virginia! The odds are this won't happen again for a long time. You are better off assuming all #1 seeds are going to advance past this round.
Ncaa Basketball Champion Odds
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 1 | 99% |
| 2 | 132 | 8 | 94% |
| 3 | 119 | 21 | 85% |
| 4 | 111 | 29 | 79% |
| 5 | 90 | 50 | 64% |
| 6 | 88 | 52 | 63% |
| 7 | 85 | 55 | 61% |
| 8 | 68 | 72 | 49% |
| 9 | 72 | 68 | 51% |
| 10 | 55 | 85 | 39% |
| 11 | 52 | 88 | 37% |
| 12 | 50 | 90 | 36% |
| 13 | 29 | 111 | 21% |
| 14 | 21 | 119 | 15% |
| 15 | 8 | 132 | 6% |
| 16 | 1 | 139 | 1% |
Second Round
The second round is where you start to find a lot of variation versus what you would expect based strictly on seeding. Number nine seeds have been terrible in their second game, while ten seeds win their second round games over 40% of the time. Top ranked teams at this point in the tournament are still a safe bet with a #1 being upset only once every 3-4 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 120 | 19 | 86% |
| 2 | 89 | 43 | 67% |
| 3 | 74 | 45 | 62% |
| 4 | 66 | 45 | 59% |
| 5 | 47 | 43 | 52% |
| 6 | 42 | 46 | 48% |
| 7 | 27 | 58 | 32% |
| 8 | 13 | 55 | 19% |
| 9 | 7 | 65 | 10% |
| 10 | 23 | 32 | 42% |
| 11 | 22 | 30 | 42% |
| 12 | 21 | 29 | 42% |
| 13 | 6 | 23 | 21% |
| 14 | 2 | 19 | 10% |
| 15 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 16 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Sweet 16
The Sweet 16 is where the better ranked teams really start to settle in. If you are a 1-3 seed that has made it this far, chances are you are going to advance. One interesting note here is that 8 seeds that have made it this far are more likely to advance than 3-7 seed. The trick, of course, is picking which 8 seed is going to advance. A #8 has been in this situation in just 37% of the brackets in the last 35 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97 | 23 | 81% |
| 2 | 64 | 25 | 72% |
| 3 | 36 | 38 | 49% |
| 4 | 21 | 45 | 32% |
| 5 | 9 | 38 | 19% |
| 6 | 14 | 28 | 33% |
| 7 | 10 | 17 | 37% |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 62% |
| 9 | 4 | 3 | 57% |
| 10 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| 11 | 8 | 14 | 36% |
| 12 | 1 | 20 | 5% |
| 13 | 0 | 6 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Elite 8
This round appears to be the biggest equalizer. Teams who reach this point in the tournament are obviously talented and have either had an easy bracket thus far or have overcome some obstacles. This makes the Elite 8 ripe for upsets.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57 | 40 | 59% |
| 2 | 29 | 35 | 45% |
| 3 | 17 | 19 | 47% |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 62% |
| 5 | 7 | 2 | 78% |
| 6 | 3 | 11 | 21% |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 30% |
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 63% |
| 9 | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| 10 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 50% |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Final Four
Similar to the Elite 8, teams who make it this far, regardless of seed, are going to be a tough out. All this means is that if you select a non-number-one to make the Final Four, you shouldn't feel obligated to pick them to lose at this point.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 23 | 60% |
| 2 | 13 | 16 | 45% |
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 65% |
| 4 | 3 | 10 | 23% |
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 43% |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| 7 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Ncaa Championship Odds 2020 Football
Championship Game
No surprise here that #1s win the Championship more often than any other, especially considering seven championship games have featured two number one teams. No team seeded higher than 8th has reached the title game as of yet, but at some point one would have to assume a 9 or 10 can break through.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 12 | 65% |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
The 2020 college football season may have just ended, but it's never too early to look ahead to 2021.
Just before Alabama knocked off Ohio State in Miami, the national championship odds for next season were posted at BetMGM. Unsurprisingly, some of the usual suspects are the early favorites to win it all next season.
Ncaa Championship Odds Football
Alabama, fresh off its sixth national title of the Nick Saban era, leads the way at +300 despite the likelihood that many of its top players, including Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, will move on to the NFL.
Next is Clemson at +350. The Tigers won't have Trevor Lawrence or Travis Etienne, but DJ Uiagalelei is next in line at quarterback to lead one of college football's most talented rosters.
Ncaa Tournament Odds By Seed
Ohio State, the four-time defending Big Ten champions and the 2020 national runner-up, has the third-best odds at +500. The Buckeyes likely won't have Justin Fields in the fold at quarterback in 2021 as the junior is expected to be a first-round pick.
Oklahoma, after closing out its season with eight consecutive victories and another Big 12 title, has the fourth-best odds at +700 while two more SEC teams — Georgia at +800 and Texas A&M at +2500 — are next in line.
Other notable 2021 national title odds from BetMGM:
Wisconsin (+3500)
LSU (+3500)
Florida (+4000)
Notre Dame (+4000)
Miami (+4000)
Penn State (+4000)
Iowa State (+4000)
Oregon (+5000)
North Carolina (+5000)
USC (+5000)
Texas (+5000)
Michigan (+5000)
Tennessee (+5000)
Arizona State (+6600)
Washington (+6600)
NC State (+6600)
Oklahoma State (+6600)
West Virginia (+6600)
Auburn (+8000)
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